Presidential elections took place in Belarus at the beginning of August. Official statistics have given Alexander Lukashenko 80 per cent of the vote extending his time in office until 2025, a post he will have then held for 31 years. The opposition leader, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, disputed the results before fleeing the country due to fear of persecution from the government. Many Belarusians also disputed the election results and protests erupted across the nation, leading to the death of two demonstrators during struggles with police. Human Rights Watch highlighted the extensive police violence and mass arrests which took place during the election process with police employing stun grenades and rubber bullets to quell unrest.
In reaction to the recent protests, the Belarusian Investigative Committee has opened a criminal enquiry into the mass riots, continuing a cycle which has been in place throughout the Lukashenko presidency.
RECENT HISTORY OF BELARUS ELECTIONS
Elections in Belarus have regularly faced controversy. The Lukashenko era is fraught with continual protests from the opposition and condemnation from international observers. Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice once titled this small nation "the last true dictatorship" in central Europe.
Discord between opposition protestors and police during Belarusian elections is not new. In 2006 Lukashenko threatened to "wring the necks" of demonstrators before taking action against those who gathered to dispute his 83% winning count. 2010 returned an 80% count in favour of President Lukashenko. Again, protestors gathered, and security forces were present to disrupt those who dissented the election results.
THE ELECTION GAME
The election process employed by the Belarusian administration ensures President Lukashenko remains in power. Dr Sofie Bedford[1] referred to this tactic as the "election game". Although there exists an "element of uncertainty" in elections; in the right conditions, employing this tactic can result in consistently favourable outcomes for the ruling party.
It is a form of power consolidation which gives legitimacy to those in government. There is an internal and external aspect to any election game:
Internally – elections provide voters with the feeling of participation and choice, and they enable public denunciation of the current administration.
Externally – if the electoral mechanisms in place act as a democratic veneer, it offers a means for foreign actors to justify engagement with the country. Foreign direct investment is at risk if there is no display of a democratic process. Citizens of international states may feel apprehensive about their country trading with a dictatorship but will have less concern about a nation which retains free and fair elections.
THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
The international response is varied. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has asked for the “immediate release of all those detained” and for the authorities to allow freedom of expression and peaceful assembly. United States Secretary of State called for the Belarusian government to "respect the rights of all Belarusians to participate in peaceful assembly, refrain from the use of force, and release those wrongfully detained." Strongest condemnation has been from the European Union High Commissioner who states "the elections were neither free nor fair. State authorities deployed disproportionate and unacceptable violence causing at least one death and many injuries." Strong rhetoric has not yet resulted in renewed penalties by any state. National governments have focused on monitoring rather than action; although Dutch foreign minister, Stefan Blok, suggested sanctions may be forthcoming.
The international reaction points to a continuing status quo. Thousands of protestors gathered to put pressure on those in power, but without support from the international community, it will not have the desired impact. Amnesty International recently highlighted the systematic dismantling of political opposition and, with the exile of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya to Lithuania, a unified response to the state crackdown is unlikely. As violence escalates and mass arrests resume, it seems the election game will continue.
[1] Sofie Bedford' The Election Game:' Authoritarian Consolidation Processes in Belarus' [2017] 25 Demokratizatsiya 381.
Harrie is due to read for the Bachelor of Civil Law at Oxford University this Autumn. He graduated from the Open University with a first-class law degree and holds a politics degree from Loughborough University. His research interests include human rights and public law and jurisprudence.